Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
