A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
